This quotation gives a warning about forecasting in the future. This quotation states problems about the traditional approach to forecasting - the prediction of estimators/summary statistics. However, agent-based models (microsimulation) provide prediction for each single individual in the future. In following sections, we will show some background into how individual predictions used to be done.
Microsimulation models are favored in the area of demographics for population forecasts, simulating the spread of diseases, and to forecast social or economic changes. In population statistics three continuous time scales are important, the individual's age, time, and the time that an individual has already spent in a specific state.
The input of such a stochastic model is a population of time transition rates, and possibly a population of migrants. We are interested in the state of times .
Optimally...