Book Image

Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R

By : Rami Krispin
Book Image

Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R

By: Rami Krispin

Overview of this book

Time-series analysis is the art of extracting meaningful insights from, and revealing patterns in, time-series data using statistical and data visualization approaches. These insights and patterns can then be utilized to explore past events and forecast future values in the series. This book explores the basics of time-series analysis with R and lays the foundation you need to build forecasting models. You will learn how to preprocess raw time-series data and clean and manipulate data with packages such as stats, lubridate, xts, and zoo. You will analyze data using both descriptive statistics and rich data visualization tools in R including the TSstudio, plotly, and ggplot2 packages. The book then delves into traditional forecasting models such as time-series linear regression, exponential smoothing (Holt, Holt-Winter, and more) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with the stats and forecast packages. You'll also work on advanced time-series regression models with machine learning algorithms such as random forest and Gradient Boosting Machine using the h2o package. By the end of this book, you will have developed the skills necessary for exploring your data, identifying patterns, and building a forecasting model using various traditional and machine learning methods.
Table of Contents (14 chapters)

Forecasting with moving average models

In Chapter 5, Decomposition of Time Series Data, we looked at the application of the moving average functions to smooth time series data. Those functions, with a small tweak, can be used as a forecasting model. In the upcoming section, we will introduce two of the most common moving average forecasting functions—the simple and weighted moving average. These models, as you will see later on in this chapter, are the foundation for the exponential smoothing forecasting models.

The simple moving average

The simple moving average (SMA) function, which we used in Chapter 5, Decomposition of Time Series Data, for smooth time series data can be utilized, with some simple steps, as a forecasting...