Book Image

Architects of Intelligence

By : Martin Ford
Book Image

Architects of Intelligence

By: Martin Ford

Overview of this book

How will AI evolve and what major innovations are on the horizon? What will its impact be on the job market, economy, and society? What is the path toward human-level machine intelligence? What should we be concerned about as artificial intelligence advances? Architects of Intelligence contains a series of in-depth, one-to-one interviews where New York Times bestselling author, Martin Ford, uncovers the truth behind these questions from some of the brightest minds in the Artificial Intelligence community. Martin has wide-ranging conversations with twenty-three of the world's foremost researchers and entrepreneurs working in AI and robotics: Demis Hassabis (DeepMind), Ray Kurzweil (Google), Geoffrey Hinton (Univ. of Toronto and Google), Rodney Brooks (Rethink Robotics), Yann LeCun (Facebook) , Fei-Fei Li (Stanford and Google), Yoshua Bengio (Univ. of Montreal), Andrew Ng (AI Fund), Daphne Koller (Stanford), Stuart Russell (UC Berkeley), Nick Bostrom (Univ. of Oxford), Barbara Grosz (Harvard), David Ferrucci (Elemental Cognition), James Manyika (McKinsey), Judea Pearl (UCLA), Josh Tenenbaum (MIT), Rana el Kaliouby (Affectiva), Daniela Rus (MIT), Jeff Dean (Google), Cynthia Breazeal (MIT), Oren Etzioni (Allen Institute for AI), Gary Marcus (NYU), and Bryan Johnson (Kernel). Martin Ford is a prominent futurist, and author of Financial Times Business Book of the Year, Rise of the Robots. He speaks at conferences and companies around the world on what AI and automation might mean for the future. This is the hardcover edition of the book.
Table of Contents (28 chapters)
Architects of Intelligence
Introduction
2
YOSHUA BENGIO
3
STUART J. RUSSELL
4
GEOFFREY HINTON
5
NICK BOSTROM
6
YANN LECUN
7
FEI-FEI LI
8
DEMIS HASSABIS
9
ANDREW NG
10
RANA EL KALIOUBY
11
RAY KURZWEIL
12
DANIELA RUS
13
JAMES MANYIKA
14
GARY MARCUS
15
BARBARA J. GROSZ
16
JUDEA PEARL
17
JEFFREY DEAN
18
DAPHNE KOLLER
19
DAVID FERRUCCI
20
RODNEY BROOKS
21
CYNTHIA BREAZEAL
22
JOSHUA TENENBAUM
23
OREN ETZIONI
24
BRYAN JOHNSON
25
When Will Human-Level AI be Achieved? Survey Results

Chapter 25. When Will Human-Level AI be Achieved? Survey Results

As part of the conversations recorded in this book, I asked each participant to give me his or her best guess for a date when there would be at least a 50 percent probability that artificial general intelligence (or human-level AI) will have been achieved. The results of this very informal survey are shown below.

A number of the individuals I spoke with were reluctant to attempt a guess at a specific year. Many pointed out that the path to AGI is highly uncertain and that there are an unknown number of hurdles that will need to be surmounted. Despite my best persuasive efforts, five people declined to give a guess. Most of the remaining 18 preferred that their individual guess remain anonymous.

As I noted in the introduction, the guesses are neatly bracketed by two people willing to provide dates on the record: Ray Kurzweil at 2029 and Rodney Brooks at 2200.

Here are the 18 guesses:

2029 11 years from 2018

2036 18 years

2038 20...