Book Image

Data Smart

By : John W. Foreman
Book Image

Data Smart

By: John W. Foreman

Overview of this book

Data Science gets thrown around in the press like it's magic. Major retailers are predicting everything from when their customers are pregnant to when they want a new pair of Chuck Taylors. It's a brave new world where seemingly meaningless data can be transformed into valuable insight to drive smart business decisions. But how does one exactly do data science? Do you have to hire one of these priests of the dark arts, the "data scientist," to extract this gold from your data? Nope. Data science is little more than using straight-forward steps to process raw data into actionable insight. And in Data Smart, author and data scientist John Foreman will show you how that's done within the familiar environment of a spreadsheet. Why a spreadsheet? It's comfortable! You get to look at the data every step of the way, building confidence as you learn the tricks of the trade. Plus, spreadsheets are a vendor-neutral place to learn data science without the hype. But don't let the Excel sheets fool you. This is a book for those serious about learning the analytic techniques, math and the magic, behind big data.
Table of Contents (18 chapters)
Free Chapter
About the Author
About the Technical Editors
End User License Agreement

Wrapping Up

This chapter covered a ton of content:

  • Simple exponential smoothing (SES)
  • Performing a t test on a linear regression to verify a linear trend in the time series
  • Holt's Trend-Corrected Exponential Smoothing
  • Calculating autocorrelations and graphing a correlogram with critical values
  • Initializing Holt-Winters Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing using a 2 x 12 moving average
  • Forecasting with Holt-Winters
  • Creating prediction intervals around the forecast using Monte Carlo simulation
  • Graphing the prediction intervals as a fan chart

If you made it through the entire chapter, bravo. Seriously, that's a lot of forecasting for one chapter.

Now if you want to go further with forecasting, there are some excellent textbooks out there. I really like Forecasting, Time Series, and Regression by Bowerman et al. (Cengage Learning, 2004). Hyndman has a free forecasting textbook online at, and his blog (awesomely called “Hyndsight”) is an excellent...