Book Image

Practical Machine Learning Cookbook

By : Atul Tripathi
Book Image

Practical Machine Learning Cookbook

By: Atul Tripathi

Overview of this book

Machine learning has become the new black. The challenge in today’s world is the explosion of data from existing legacy data and incoming new structured and unstructured data. The complexity of discovering, understanding, performing analysis, and predicting outcomes on the data using machine learning algorithms is a challenge. This cookbook will help solve everyday challenges you face as a data scientist. The application of various data science techniques and on multiple data sets based on real-world challenges you face will help you appreciate a variety of techniques used in various situations. The first half of the book provides recipes on fairly complex machine-learning systems, where you’ll learn to explore new areas of applications of machine learning and improve its efficiency. That includes recipes on classifications, neural networks, unsupervised and supervised learning, deep learning, reinforcement learning, and more. The second half of the book focuses on three different machine learning case studies, all based on real-world data, and offers solutions and solves specific machine-learning issues in each one.
Table of Contents (21 chapters)
Practical Machine Learning Cookbook
Credits
About the Author
About the Reviewer
www.PacktPub.com
Customer Feedback
Preface
14
Case Study - Forecast of Electricity Consumption

Markov chains - the stocks regime switching model


In the last few decades, a lot of studies have been conducted on the analysis and forecasting of volatility. Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of returns. Models of stock returns assume that the returns follow a geometric Brownian motion. This implies that over any discrete time interval, the return on stocks is log normally distributed and that returns in non-overlapping intervals are independent. Studies have found that this model fails to capture extreme price movements and stochastic variability in the volatility parameter. Stochastic volatility takes discrete values, switching between these values randomly. This is the basis of the regime-switching lognormal process (RSLN).

Getting ready

In order to perform the Markov chains regime switching model we shall be using data collected from the Stock's dataset.

Step 1 - collecting and describing the data

The dataset...