#### Overview of this book

This is the go-to book for anyone interested in the steps needed to develop predictive analytics solutions with examples from the world of marketing, healthcare, and retail. We'll get started with a brief history of predictive analytics and learn about different roles and functions people play within a predictive analytics project. Then, we will learn about various ways of installing R along with their pros and cons, combined with a step-by-step installation of RStudio, and a description of the best practices for organizing your projects. On completing the installation, we will begin to acquire the skills necessary to input, clean, and prepare your data for modeling. We will learn the six specific steps needed to implement and successfully deploy a predictive model starting from asking the right questions through model development and ending with deploying your predictive model into production. We will learn why collaboration is important and how agile iterative modeling cycles can increase your chances of developing and deploying the best successful model. We will continue your journey in the cloud by extending your skill set by learning about Databricks and SparkR, which allow you to develop predictive models on vast gigabytes of data.
Title Page
Credits
www.PacktPub.com
Customer Feedback
Preface
Free Chapter
Getting Started with Predictive Analytics
The Modeling Process
Inputting and Exploring Data
Introduction to Regression Algorithms
Introduction to Decision Trees, Clustering, and SVM
Using Survival Analysis to Predict and Analyze Customer Churn
Introduction to Spark Using R
Exploring Large Datasets Using Spark
Spark Machine Learning - Regression and Cluster Models
Spark Models – Rule-Based Learning

## Modifying the model to include a trend component

Earlier, we added a linear trend line to the data. If we wanted to incorporate a linear trend into the forecast as well, we can substitute `A` for the second parameter (trend parameter), which yields an `"AAN"` model (Holt's linear trend). This type of method allows exponential smoothing with a trend:

```fit <- ets(x, model = "AAN")
summary(fit)
> ETS(A,A,N)
>
> Call:
> ets(y = x, model = "AAN")
>
> Smoothing parameters:
> alpha = 0.0312
> beta = 0.0312
>
> Initial states:
> l = 0.1641
> b = -0.0021
>
> sigma: 0.0042
>
> AIC AICc BIC
> -108.5711 -104.1267 -106.0149
>
> Training set error measures:
> ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE
> Training set -0.000290753 0.004157744 0.003574276 -0.2632899 2.40212
> MASE ACF1
> Training set 0.7709083 0.05003007```

Plotting the forecast yields the plot below:

`plot(forecast(fit))`