Book Image

Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R

By : Rami Krispin
Book Image

Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R

By: Rami Krispin

Overview of this book

Time-series analysis is the art of extracting meaningful insights from, and revealing patterns in, time-series data using statistical and data visualization approaches. These insights and patterns can then be utilized to explore past events and forecast future values in the series. This book explores the basics of time-series analysis with R and lays the foundation you need to build forecasting models. You will learn how to preprocess raw time-series data and clean and manipulate data with packages such as stats, lubridate, xts, and zoo. You will analyze data using both descriptive statistics and rich data visualization tools in R including the TSstudio, plotly, and ggplot2 packages. The book then delves into traditional forecasting models such as time-series linear regression, exponential smoothing (Holt, Holt-Winter, and more) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with the stats and forecast packages. You'll also work on advanced time-series regression models with machine learning algorithms such as random forest and Gradient Boosting Machine using the h2o package. By the end of this book, you will have developed the skills necessary for exploring your data, identifying patterns, and building a forecasting model using various traditional and machine learning methods.
Table of Contents (14 chapters)

The time series components

Patterns in time series data are the backbone of the analysis of it. As with other fields of statistics and, in particular, the field of machine learning, one of the primary goals of time series analysis is to identify patterns in data. Those patterns can then be utilized to provide meaningful insights about both past and future events such as seasonal, outliers, or unique events. Patterns in time series analysis can be categorized into one of the following:

  • Structural patterns: These are also known as series components, which represent, as the name implies, the core structure of the series. There are three types of structural patterns—trend, cycle, and seasonal. You can think about those patterns as binary events, which may or may not exist in the data. This helps to classify the series characteristics and identify the best approach to analyze...