Book Image

Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R

By : Rami Krispin
Book Image

Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R

By: Rami Krispin

Overview of this book

Time-series analysis is the art of extracting meaningful insights from, and revealing patterns in, time-series data using statistical and data visualization approaches. These insights and patterns can then be utilized to explore past events and forecast future values in the series. This book explores the basics of time-series analysis with R and lays the foundation you need to build forecasting models. You will learn how to preprocess raw time-series data and clean and manipulate data with packages such as stats, lubridate, xts, and zoo. You will analyze data using both descriptive statistics and rich data visualization tools in R including the TSstudio, plotly, and ggplot2 packages. The book then delves into traditional forecasting models such as time-series linear regression, exponential smoothing (Holt, Holt-Winter, and more) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with the stats and forecast packages. You'll also work on advanced time-series regression models with machine learning algorithms such as random forest and Gradient Boosting Machine using the h2o package. By the end of this book, you will have developed the skills necessary for exploring your data, identifying patterns, and building a forecasting model using various traditional and machine learning methods.
Table of Contents (14 chapters)

Summary

In this chapter, we introduced the forecasting applications of the linear regression model. Although the linear regression model was not designed to handle time series data, with simple feature engineering we can transform a forecasting problem into a linear regression problem. The main advantage of the linear regression model with respect to other traditional time series models is the ability of the model to incorporate external variables and factors. Nevertheless, this model can handle time series with multiseasonality patterns, as we saw with the UK demand for electricity forecast. Last but not least, the forecasting approaches we demonstrated in this chapter will be the base for advanced modeling with machine learning models that we will discuss in Chapter 12, Forecasting with Machine Learning Models.

In the next chapter, we will introduce the exponential smoothing...