Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Strategies to improve GFMs

GFMs have been in use in many forecasting competitions in Kaggle and outside of it. They have been battle-tested empirically, although very little work has gone into examining why they work so well from a theoretical point of view. Montero-Manso and Hyndman (2020) have a working paper titled Principles and Algorithms for Forecasting Groups of Time Series: Locality and Globality, which is an in-depth investigation, both theoretical and empirical, of GFMs and the many techniques that have been developed by the data science community collectively. In this section, we will try to include strategies to improve GFMs and, wherever possible, try to give theoretical justifications for why they would work.

Reference check

The Montero-Manso and Hyndman (2020) research paper is cited in References under reference number 1.

In the paper, Montero-Manso and Hyndman use a basic result in machine learning about generalization error to carry out the theoretical analysis...