Book Image

Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel

By : Fernando Roque
Book Image

Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel

By: Fernando Roque

Overview of this book

Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel guides you through basic statistics to test whether your data can be used to perform regression predictions and time series forecasts. The exercises covered in this book use real-life data from Kaggle, such as demand for seasonal air tickets and credit card fraud detection. You’ll learn how to apply the grouping K-means algorithm, which helps you find segments of your data that are impossible to see with other analyses, such as business intelligence (BI) and pivot analysis. By analyzing groups returned by K-means, you’ll be able to detect outliers that could indicate possible fraud or a bad function in network packets. By the end of this Microsoft Excel book, you’ll be able to use the classification algorithm to group data with different variables. You’ll also be able to train linear and time series models to perform predictions and forecasts based on past data.
Table of Contents (19 chapters)
1
Part 1 – An Introduction to Machine Learning Functions
5
Part 2 – Grouping Data to Find Segments and Outliers
10
Part 3 – Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
14
Part 4 – Predicting Values with Time Series

Calculating the intercept and slope with formulas

The main components of a linear model are as follows:

  • Intercept
  • Slope

The regression slope defines the difference between the expected values and those of the model. From here, we calculate the first check to determine whether the variables have a relationship and are useful to build a predictive model. We have accepted the hypothesis that the variables are related, and we can use them to build a predictive model. The first check includes the coefficients of determination and correlation.

The slope indicates whether the data has a direct or an inverse relationship. It is probable that the predictor value, X, grows, while the result variable, Y, decreases. In this case, we have an inverse relationship with a negative slope. A slope with a value equal to zero (flat) means there is no relationship between the model variables, predictors, and effects. We use the t-statistics test to probe the hypothesis that the slope...