Book Image

Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel

By : Fernando Roque
Book Image

Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel

By: Fernando Roque

Overview of this book

Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel guides you through basic statistics to test whether your data can be used to perform regression predictions and time series forecasts. The exercises covered in this book use real-life data from Kaggle, such as demand for seasonal air tickets and credit card fraud detection. You’ll learn how to apply the grouping K-means algorithm, which helps you find segments of your data that are impossible to see with other analyses, such as business intelligence (BI) and pivot analysis. By analyzing groups returned by K-means, you’ll be able to detect outliers that could indicate possible fraud or a bad function in network packets. By the end of this Microsoft Excel book, you’ll be able to use the classification algorithm to group data with different variables. You’ll also be able to train linear and time series models to perform predictions and forecasts based on past data.
Table of Contents (19 chapters)
1
Part 1 – An Introduction to Machine Learning Functions
5
Part 2 – Grouping Data to Find Segments and Outliers
10
Part 3 – Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
14
Part 4 – Predicting Values with Time Series

Doing prediction scenarios with the regression model

As we saw earlier, the regression model is not an exact answer for our prediction's needs because it depends on the level of the relationship between the causal variables and the Y result/effect variable.

Taking this into account, a more realistic answer is to present three scenarios of the prediction model. The scenarios depend on the confidence level of the slope. We have the upper and lower scenarios, depending on the value assigned to the slope. These scenarios exhibit the different value range for miles-per-gallon performance, depending on the variation of horsepower from 0 to 150:

  • Linear model scenario: Miles-per-gallon performance goes from 34 to 14
  • Upper scenario: Performance of miles per gallon has a range between 30 and 17
  • Lower scenario: Performance of miles per gallon goes from 30 to 0

The formula for the confidence level of the slope is as follows:

From previous...