Book Image

Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel

By : Fernando Roque
Book Image

Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel

By: Fernando Roque

Overview of this book

Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel guides you through basic statistics to test whether your data can be used to perform regression predictions and time series forecasts. The exercises covered in this book use real-life data from Kaggle, such as demand for seasonal air tickets and credit card fraud detection. You’ll learn how to apply the grouping K-means algorithm, which helps you find segments of your data that are impossible to see with other analyses, such as business intelligence (BI) and pivot analysis. By analyzing groups returned by K-means, you’ll be able to detect outliers that could indicate possible fraud or a bad function in network packets. By the end of this Microsoft Excel book, you’ll be able to use the classification algorithm to group data with different variables. You’ll also be able to train linear and time series models to perform predictions and forecasts based on past data.
Table of Contents (19 chapters)
1
Part 1 – An Introduction to Machine Learning Functions
5
Part 2 – Grouping Data to Find Segments and Outliers
10
Part 3 – Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
14
Part 4 – Predicting Values with Time Series

Answers

Here are the answers to the preceding questions:

  1. The first input value is the coefficient of determination. Its formula is the explained variation divided by the total variation. The second input value is the sign of the slope. If it is positive, the relationship is direct. If not, the relationship is inverse.
  2. t-statistics tell us whether the null hypothesis that the slope is equal to zero can be rejected. The slope with a non-zero value means a relationship between the variables. This is the alternative hypothesis.
  3. The model just gives trends, not exact results. The scenarios give us an idea of the range of values that the model predicts. It helps to analyze whether the results make sense or not, based on our experience.
  4. The unexplained variation or errors of the linear model is the distance of the model from the expected values. These distances must be short to have an effective predictor model. If it is not, the worst-case scenario is a high standard...