Book Image

Practical Guide to Applied Conformal Prediction in Python

By : Valery Manokhin
4 (1)
Book Image

Practical Guide to Applied Conformal Prediction in Python

4 (1)
By: Valery Manokhin

Overview of this book

In the rapidly evolving landscape of machine learning, the ability to accurately quantify uncertainty is pivotal. The book addresses this need by offering an in-depth exploration of Conformal Prediction, a cutting-edge framework to manage uncertainty in various ML applications. Learn how Conformal Prediction excels in calibrating classification models, produces well-calibrated prediction intervals for regression, and resolves challenges in time series forecasting and imbalanced data. Discover specialised applications of conformal prediction in cutting-edge domains like computer vision and NLP. Each chapter delves into specific aspects, offering hands-on insights and best practices for enhancing prediction reliability. The book concludes with a focus on multi-class classification nuances, providing expert-level proficiency to seamlessly integrate Conformal Prediction into diverse industries. With practical examples in Python using real-world datasets, expert insights, and open-source library applications, you will gain a solid understanding of this modern framework for uncertainty quantification. By the end of this book, you will be able to master Conformal Prediction in Python with a blend of theory and practical application, enabling you to confidently apply this powerful framework to quantify uncertainty in diverse fields.
Table of Contents (19 chapters)
Free Chapter
1
Part 1: Introduction
4
Part 2: Conformal Prediction Framework
8
Part 3: Applications of Conformal Prediction
14
Part 4: Advanced Topics

How conformal prediction differs from traditional machine learning

Conformal prediction allows the production of well-calibrated probabilistic predictions for any statistical, machine learning, or deep learning model. This is achieved without relying on restrictive assumptions required by other methods such as Bayesian techniques, Monte Carlo simulation, and bootstrapping. Importantly, conformal prediction does not require subjective priors. It provides mathematically guaranteed, well-calibrated predictions every time – regardless of the underlying prediction model, data distribution, or dataset size.

A key limitation of traditional machine learning is the need for more reasonable confidence measures for individual predictions. Models may have excellent overall performance but not be able to quantify uncertainty for a given input reliably.

Conformal prediction solves this by outputting prediction regions and confidence measures with statistical validity guarantees. It...