Continuing with the work we did in the previous example, I would like to propose a new model, where temperature is a function of the day of the year (between 1 and 366). Of course, this model is not complete, but can be used as a component in a more advanced model, which should take into account the previous autoregressive model that we did with lag 2. The procedure for this model is illustrated as follows:
Fit the temperature data before the cutoff point to a quadratic polynomial just as in the previous section but without averaging:
poly = np.polyfit(days[:cutoff], temp[:cutoff], 2) print poly
Believe it or not, we get the same polynomial coefficients we got earlier:
[ -4.91072584e-04 1.92682505e-01 -3.97182941e+00]Calculate the absolute difference between the predicted and actual values:
delta = np.abs(np.polyval(poly, days[cutoff:]) - temp[cutoff:])
Plot a histogram of the absolute error:
plt.hist(delta, bins = 10, normed = True) plt.show...