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Book Overview & Buying
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Table Of Contents
Algorithmic Short Selling with Python - Second Edition
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Let's recap what we have learned in this chapter. The mysterious, mystical, mythical, magical trading edge is nothing but a little formula we learned back in school called gain expectancy. The trading edge is expressed through three related formulas: arithmetic expectancy measures average profit per trade. Geometric expectancy assesses compounding and long-term robustness. The Kelly criterion optimizes the geometric growth through position sizing. All three rely on the same inputs: win rate, average win, and average loss.
Regardless of asset class, timeframe, or instrument, all strategies ever traded fall into two buckets: trend following or mean reversion. Trend following strategies have low win rates (<50%). They rely on a few large winners to offset many small losses. They are right skewed: tail events are profitable. Profits come from keeping losses small. Mean reversion strategies have high win rates and frequent small gains. Prices are expected to misbehave...
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