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Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

By : Yousri El Fattah, Reza Bagheri
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Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

By: Yousri El Fattah, Reza Bagheri

Overview of this book

This practical guide explores Bayesian networks, graphical models, and causal inference for probabilistic reasoning and treatment effect estimation using real-world data. You’ll learn Bayesian networks, conditional independence, structural causal models (SCM), and intervention-based reasoning for causal analysis. The book explains how graphical models support probabilistic inference, decision-making, and knowledge representation across healthcare, economics, epidemiology, finance, and social sciences. You’ll work with probabilistic inference methods such as variable elimination, tree clustering, and Bayesian network reasoning. For causal inference, the book covers Pearl’s do-calculus, backdoor and front-door criteria, causal effect identification, and treatment effect estimation using observational data. You’ll also explore the potential outcomes framework and machine learning approaches for causal inference, including meta-learners for estimating conditional average treatment effects and heterogeneous treatment effects. Practical examples and exercises in R and Python help reinforce concepts and build implementation skills for causal modeling workflows. By the end of the book, you’ll be able to design Bayesian network models, perform probabilistic and causal inference, and develop practical causal analysis applications for evidence-based decision-making.
Table of Contents (18 chapters)
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16
Other Books You May Enjoy
17
Index

Summary

In this chapter, causal survival analysis in epidemiology was introduced. We first learned about survival analysis and its core concepts like survival probability, risk, and hazard. We saw how to use a Kaplan-Meier curve to visualize the survival probabilities over time. Then we analyzed the NHEFS dataset, a benchmark dataset in survival causal inference. The NHEFS dataset can be used to estimate the causal effect of quitting smoking on mortality.

An EDA analysis was performed on this dataset, and the surprising observation was that 76% of the participants who quit smoking survived after 10 years, while 82% of non-quitters survived. Hence, we had to apply causal inference methods to estimate the true causal effect of quitting smoking on mortality.

We used two different methods to estimate the survival curve of quitters and non-quitters: IPTW and standardization. We used the causallib package to calculate the propensity scores using a logistic regression model and then...

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Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks
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