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Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

By : Yousri El Fattah, Reza Bagheri
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Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

By: Yousri El Fattah, Reza Bagheri

Overview of this book

This practical guide explores Bayesian networks, graphical models, and causal inference for probabilistic reasoning and treatment effect estimation using real-world data. You’ll learn Bayesian networks, conditional independence, structural causal models (SCM), and intervention-based reasoning for causal analysis. The book explains how graphical models support probabilistic inference, decision-making, and knowledge representation across healthcare, economics, epidemiology, finance, and social sciences. You’ll work with probabilistic inference methods such as variable elimination, tree clustering, and Bayesian network reasoning. For causal inference, the book covers Pearl’s do-calculus, backdoor and front-door criteria, causal effect identification, and treatment effect estimation using observational data. You’ll also explore the potential outcomes framework and machine learning approaches for causal inference, including meta-learners for estimating conditional average treatment effects and heterogeneous treatment effects. Practical examples and exercises in R and Python help reinforce concepts and build implementation skills for causal modeling workflows. By the end of the book, you’ll be able to design Bayesian network models, perform probabilistic and causal inference, and develop practical causal analysis applications for evidence-based decision-making.
Table of Contents (18 chapters)
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16
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Index

Causal Inference in Social Science Research

This chapter examines the famous Card and Krueger minimum wage study from 1994, which investigated the impact of a minimum wage increase on fast-food employment in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Using surveys of fast-food outlets, the study contrasted employment in New Jersey, which raised its minimum wage, to neighboring Pennsylvania, where it remained unchanged. The main idea behind this causal analysis is to use the trend of the control group (those in Pennsylvania) as a counterfactual for the unobserved trend in the treatment group (those in New Jersey). The causal analysis employs linear regression and the Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (IPTW) to estimate the causal effect. All these methods are implemented in Python, and the causallib package will be used to estimate the causal effect.

In this chapter, we’re going to cover the following main topics:

  • Causal inference in social science research
  • Card...
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Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks
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