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Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

By : Yousri El Fattah, Reza Bagheri
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Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

By: Yousri El Fattah, Reza Bagheri

Overview of this book

This practical guide explores Bayesian networks, graphical models, and causal inference for probabilistic reasoning and treatment effect estimation using real-world data. You’ll learn Bayesian networks, conditional independence, structural causal models (SCM), and intervention-based reasoning for causal analysis. The book explains how graphical models support probabilistic inference, decision-making, and knowledge representation across healthcare, economics, epidemiology, finance, and social sciences. You’ll work with probabilistic inference methods such as variable elimination, tree clustering, and Bayesian network reasoning. For causal inference, the book covers Pearl’s do-calculus, backdoor and front-door criteria, causal effect identification, and treatment effect estimation using observational data. You’ll also explore the potential outcomes framework and machine learning approaches for causal inference, including meta-learners for estimating conditional average treatment effects and heterogeneous treatment effects. Practical examples and exercises in R and Python help reinforce concepts and build implementation skills for causal modeling workflows. By the end of the book, you’ll be able to design Bayesian network models, perform probabilistic and causal inference, and develop practical causal analysis applications for evidence-based decision-making.
Table of Contents (18 chapters)
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16
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Index

Interpreting probability: frequentist versus subjective

The Kolmogorov axioms formally define probability and set the calculus for deriving new probabilities when given specific probabilities as inputs. The axioms tell us nothing about how to develop the initial probability assignments or "where the numbers come from." Several schools of thought have endeavored to give various interpretations of probability to address the question.

We present here the highlights of two main interpretations: frequentist and subjective. Both interpretations are central to two distinct approaches to statistical inference, as we will discuss later in this section.

Frequentist interpretation

Long-term frequencies are central to probability's frequentist (or statistical) interpretation. In frequentist interpretation, probabilities are assigned based on experimentation or historical data. For example, to give a probability to an event B21265_02_536.png, we conduct an experiment, repeat it B21265_02_537.png...

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Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks
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