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Table Of Contents
Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks
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The Kolmogorov axioms formally define probability and set the calculus for deriving new probabilities when given specific probabilities as inputs. The axioms tell us nothing about how to develop the initial probability assignments or "where the numbers come from." Several schools of thought have endeavored to give various interpretations of probability to address the question.
We present here the highlights of two main interpretations: frequentist and subjective. Both interpretations are central to two distinct approaches to statistical inference, as we will discuss later in this section.
Long-term frequencies are central to probability's frequentist (or statistical) interpretation. In frequentist interpretation, probabilities are assigned based on experimentation or historical data. For example, to give a probability to an event
, we conduct an experiment, repeat it
...