Book Image

Time Series Analysis with Python Cookbook

By : Tarek A. Atwan
Book Image

Time Series Analysis with Python Cookbook

By: Tarek A. Atwan

Overview of this book

Time series data is everywhere, available at a high frequency and volume. It is complex and can contain noise, irregularities, and multiple patterns, making it crucial to be well-versed with the techniques covered in this book for data preparation, analysis, and forecasting. This book covers practical techniques for working with time series data, starting with ingesting time series data from various sources and formats, whether in private cloud storage, relational databases, non-relational databases, or specialized time series databases such as InfluxDB. Next, you’ll learn strategies for handling missing data, dealing with time zones and custom business days, and detecting anomalies using intuitive statistical methods, followed by more advanced unsupervised ML models. The book will also explore forecasting using classical statistical models such as Holt-Winters, SARIMA, and VAR. The recipes will present practical techniques for handling non-stationary data, using power transforms, ACF and PACF plots, and decomposing time series data with multiple seasonal patterns. Later, you’ll work with ML and DL models using TensorFlow and PyTorch. Finally, you’ll learn how to evaluate, compare, optimize models, and more using the recipes covered in the book.
Table of Contents (18 chapters)

Chapter 10: Building Univariate Time Series Models Using Statistical Methods

In Chapter 9, Exploratory Data Analysis and Diagnosis, you were introduced to several concepts to help you understand the time series process. Such recipes included Decomposing time series data, Detecting time series stationarity, Applying power transformations, and Testing for autocorrelation in time series data. These techniques will come in handy in the statistical modeling approach that will be discussed in this chapter.

When working with time series data, different methods and models can be used, depending on whether the time series is univariate or multivariate, seasonal or non-seasonal, stationary or non-stationary, and linear or nonlinear. If you list the assumptions you need to consider and examine – for example, stationarity and autocorrelation – it will become apparent why time series data is deemed to be complex and challenging. Thus, to model such a complex system, your goal is...