Book Image

Machine Learning for Time-Series with Python

By : Ben Auffarth
Book Image

Machine Learning for Time-Series with Python

By: Ben Auffarth

Overview of this book

The Python time-series ecosystem is huge and often quite hard to get a good grasp on, especially for time-series since there are so many new libraries and new models. This book aims to deepen your understanding of time series by providing a comprehensive overview of popular Python time-series packages and help you build better predictive systems. Machine Learning for Time-Series with Python starts by re-introducing the basics of time series and then builds your understanding of traditional autoregressive models as well as modern non-parametric models. By observing practical examples and the theory behind them, you will become confident with loading time-series datasets from any source, deep learning models like recurrent neural networks and causal convolutional network models, and gradient boosting with feature engineering. This book will also guide you in matching the right model to the right problem by explaining the theory behind several useful models. You’ll also have a look at real-world case studies covering weather, traffic, biking, and stock market data. By the end of this book, you should feel at home with effectively analyzing and applying machine learning methods to time-series.
Table of Contents (15 chapters)
13
Other Books You May Enjoy
14
Index

Silverkite

The Silverkite algorithm ships together with the Greykite library released by LinkedIn. It was explicitly designed with the goals in mind of being fast, accurate, and intuitive. The algorithm is described in a 2021 publication ("A flexible forecasting model for production systems", by Reza Hosseini and others).

According to LinkedIn, it can handle different kinds of trends and seasonalities such as hourly, daily, weekly, repeated events, and holidays, and short-range effects. Within LinkedIn, it is used for both short-term, for example, a 1-day head, and long-term forecast horizons, such as 1 year ahead.

Use cases within LinkedIn include optimizing budget decisions, setting business metric targets, and providing sufficient infrastructure to handle peak traffic. Furthermore, a use case has been to model recoveries from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The time-series is modeled as an additive composite of trends, change points, and seasonality, where seasonality...