Book Image

Codeless Time Series Analysis with KNIME

By : KNIME AG, Corey Weisinger, Maarit Widmann, Daniele Tonini
Book Image

Codeless Time Series Analysis with KNIME

By: KNIME AG, Corey Weisinger, Maarit Widmann, Daniele Tonini

Overview of this book

This book will take you on a practical journey, teaching you how to implement solutions for many use cases involving time series analysis techniques. This learning journey is organized in a crescendo of difficulty, starting from the easiest yet effective techniques applied to weather forecasting, then introducing ARIMA and its variations, moving on to machine learning for audio signal classification, training deep learning architectures to predict glucose levels and electrical energy demand, and ending with an approach to anomaly detection in IoT. There’s no time series analysis book without a solution for stock price predictions and you’ll find this use case at the end of the book, together with a few more demand prediction use cases that rely on the integration of KNIME Analytics Platform and other external tools. By the end of this time series book, you’ll have learned about popular time series analysis techniques and algorithms, KNIME Analytics Platform, its time series extension, and how to apply both to common use cases.
Table of Contents (20 chapters)
1
Part 1: Time Series Basics and KNIME Analytics Platform
7
Part 2: Building and Deploying a Forecasting Model
14
Part 3: Forecasting on Mixed Platforms

Chapter 7: Forecasting the Temperature with ARIMA and SARIMA Models

In the previous chapter, we talked about our first forecasting use case, with fairly uncomplicated statistical techniques. In this chapter, we will continue to implore statistical techniques to generate forecasts, but we will move on to the very popular and robust ARIMA and SARIMA models. ARIMA, and its big brother SARIMA, are acronyms that stand for (Seasonal) Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average. You can think of it in four parts:

  • AR: Auto-regressive
  • I: Integrated
  • MA: Moving average
  • S: Seasonal

Each one of these terms represents a separate technique that is combined with the (S)ARIMA model. In this chapter, you’ll learn about strong and weak stationarity, how to induce this in your data, the ARIMA and SARIMA models, and how to derive their hyperparameters from auto-correlation and partial auto-correlation plots.

In this chapter, we’ll cover the following topics:

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