4.5 (2)

4.5 (2)

#### Overview of this book

The second edition of Bayesian Analysis with Python is an introduction to the main concepts of applied Bayesian inference and its practical implementation in Python using PyMC3, a state-of-the-art probabilistic programming library, and ArviZ, a new library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models. The main concepts of Bayesian statistics are covered using a practical and computational approach. Synthetic and real data sets are used to introduce several types of models, such as generalized linear models for regression and classification, mixture models, hierarchical models, and Gaussian processes, among others. By the end of the book, you will have a working knowledge of probabilistic modeling and you will be able to design and implement Bayesian models for your own data science problems. After reading the book you will be better prepared to delve into more advanced material or specialized statistical modeling if you need to.
Preface
Free Chapter
Thinking Probabilistically
Programming Probabilistically
Modeling with Linear Regression
Generalizing Linear Models
Model Comparison
Mixture Models
Gaussian Processes
Inference Engines
Where To Go Next?
Other Books You May Enjoy

# Thinking Probabilistically

"Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation."
- Pierre Simon Laplace

In this chapter, we will learn about the core concepts of Bayesian statistics and some of the instruments in the Bayesian toolbox. We will use some Python code, but this chapter will be mostly theoretical; most of the concepts we will see here will be revisited many times throughout this book. This chapter, being heavy on the theoretical side, may be a little anxiogenic for the coder in you, but I think it will ease the path in effectively applying Bayesian statistics to your problems.

In this chapter, we will cover the following topics:

• Statistical modeling
• Probabilities and uncertainty
• Bayes' theorem and statistical inference
• Single-parameter inference and the classic coin-flip problem
• Choosing priors and why people often don't like them, but should
• Communicating a Bayesian analysis