Book Image

Bayesian Analysis with Python - Second Edition

By : Osvaldo Martin
4.5 (2)
Book Image

Bayesian Analysis with Python - Second Edition

4.5 (2)
By: Osvaldo Martin

Overview of this book

The second edition of Bayesian Analysis with Python is an introduction to the main concepts of applied Bayesian inference and its practical implementation in Python using PyMC3, a state-of-the-art probabilistic programming library, and ArviZ, a new library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models. The main concepts of Bayesian statistics are covered using a practical and computational approach. Synthetic and real data sets are used to introduce several types of models, such as generalized linear models for regression and classification, mixture models, hierarchical models, and Gaussian processes, among others. By the end of the book, you will have a working knowledge of probabilistic modeling and you will be able to design and implement Bayesian models for your own data science problems. After reading the book you will be better prepared to delve into more advanced material or specialized statistical modeling if you need to.
Table of Contents (11 chapters)
9
Where To Go Next?

Probabilistic programming

Bayesian statistics is conceptually very simple; we have the knows and the unknowns; we use Bayes' theorem to condition the latter on the former. If we are lucky, this process will reduce the uncertainty about the unknowns. Generally, we refer to the knowns as data and treat it like a constant, and the unknowns as parameters and treat them as probability distributions. In more formal terms, we assign probability distributions to unknown quantities. Then, we use Bayes' theorem to transform the prior probability distribution into a posterior distribution . Although conceptually simple, fully probabilistic models often lead to analytically intractable expressions. For many years, this was a real problem and was probably one of the main issues that hindered the wide adoption of Bayesian methods.

The arrival of the computational era and the development...