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Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python - Second Edition

By : Manu Joseph, Jeffrey Tackes
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Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (2)
By: Manu Joseph, Jeffrey Tackes

Overview of this book

Predicting the future, whether it's market trends, energy demand, or website traffic, has never been more crucial. This practical, hands-on guide empowers you to build and deploy powerful time series forecasting models. Whether you’re working with traditional statistical methods or cutting-edge deep learning architectures, this book provides structured learning and best practices for both. Starting with the basics, this data science book introduces fundamental time series concepts, such as ARIMA and exponential smoothing, before gradually progressing to advanced topics, such as machine learning for time series, deep neural networks, and transformers. As part of your fundamentals training, you’ll learn preprocessing, feature engineering, and model evaluation. As you progress, you’ll also explore global forecasting models, ensemble methods, and probabilistic forecasting techniques. This new edition goes deeper into transformer architectures and probabilistic forecasting, including new content on the latest time series models, conformal prediction, and hierarchical forecasting. Whether you seek advanced deep learning insights or specialized architecture implementations, this edition provides practical strategies and new content to elevate your forecasting skills. *Email sign-up and proof of purchase required
Table of Contents (27 chapters)
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1
Part 1: Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2: Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3: Deep Learning for Time Series
21
Part 4: Mechanics of Forecasting
25
Other Books You May Enjoy
26
Index

Creating global deep learning forecasting models

In Chapter 10, Global Forecasting Models, we talked in detail about why a global model makes sense. We talked about the benefits regarding increased sample size, cross-learning, multi-task learning, the regularization effect that comes with it, and reduced engineering complexity. All of these are relevant for a deep learning model as well. Engineering complexity and sample size become even more important because deep learning models are data-hungry and take quite a bit more engineering effort and training time than other machine learning models. I would go to the extent that in the deep learning context, in most practical cases where we have to forecast at scale, global models are the only deep learning paradigm that makes sense.

So, why did we spend all that time looking at individual models? Well, it’s easier to grasp the concept at that level, and the skills and knowledge we gained at that level are very easily transferred...

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