Sign In Start Free Trial
Account

Add to playlist

Create a Playlist

Modal Close icon
You need to login to use this feature.
  • Book Overview & Buying Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet
  • Table Of Contents Toc
Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

By : Greg Rafferty
4.9 (9)
close
close
Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

4.9 (9)
By: Greg Rafferty

Overview of this book

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet will help you to implement Prophet's cutting-edge forecasting techniques to model future data with high accuracy using only a few lines of code. This second edition has been fully revised with every update to the Prophet package since the first edition was published two years ago. An entirely new chapter is also included, diving into the mathematical equations behind Prophet's models. Additionally, the book contains new sections on forecasting during shocks such as COVID, creating custom trend modes from scratch, and a discussion of recent developments in the open-source forecasting community. You'll cover advanced features such as visualizing forecasts, adding holidays and trend changepoints, and handling outliers. You'll use the Fourier series to model seasonality, learn how to choose between an additive and multiplicative model, and understand when to modify each model parameter. Later, you'll see how to optimize more complicated models with hyperparameter tuning and by adding additional regressors to the model. Finally, you'll learn how to run diagnostics to evaluate the performance of your models in production. By the end of this book, you'll be able to take a raw time series dataset and build advanced and accurate forecasting models with concise, understandable, and repeatable code.
Table of Contents (20 chapters)
close
close
1
Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
5
Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
14
Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation

Influencing Trend Changepoints

During the development of Prophet, the engineering team recognized that real-world time series will frequently exhibit abrupt changes in their trajectories. As a fundamentally linear regression model, Prophet would not be capable of capturing these changes without special care being taken. You may have noticed in the previous chapters, however, that when we plotted the forecast components in our examples, the trend line was not always perfectly straight. Clearly, the Prophet team has developed a way for Prophet to capture these bends in the linear model. The locations of these bends are called changepoints.

Prophet will automatically identify these changepoints and allow the trend to adapt appropriately. However, there are several tools you can use to control this behavior if Prophet is underfitting or overfitting these rate changes. In this chapter, we’ll look at Prophet’s automatic changepoint detection to provide you with an understanding...

CONTINUE READING
83
Tech Concepts
36
Programming languages
73
Tech Tools
Icon Unlimited access to the largest independent learning library in tech of over 8,000 expert-authored tech books and videos.
Icon Innovative learning tools, including AI book assistants, code context explainers, and text-to-speech.
Icon 50+ new titles added per month and exclusive early access to books as they are being written.
Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet
notes
bookmark Notes and Bookmarks search Search in title playlist Add to playlist download Download options font-size Font size

Change the font size

margin-width Margin width

Change margin width

day-mode Day/Sepia/Night Modes

Change background colour

Close icon Search
Country selected

Close icon Your notes and bookmarks

Confirmation

Modal Close icon
claim successful

Buy this book with your credits?

Modal Close icon
Are you sure you want to buy this book with one of your credits?
Close
YES, BUY

Submit Your Feedback

Modal Close icon
Modal Close icon
Modal Close icon