Book Image

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

By : Greg Rafferty
5 (1)
Book Image

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

5 (1)
By: Greg Rafferty

Overview of this book

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet will help you to implement Prophet's cutting-edge forecasting techniques to model future data with high accuracy using only a few lines of code. This second edition has been fully revised with every update to the Prophet package since the first edition was published two years ago. An entirely new chapter is also included, diving into the mathematical equations behind Prophet's models. Additionally, the book contains new sections on forecasting during shocks such as COVID, creating custom trend modes from scratch, and a discussion of recent developments in the open-source forecasting community. You'll cover advanced features such as visualizing forecasts, adding holidays and trend changepoints, and handling outliers. You'll use the Fourier series to model seasonality, learn how to choose between an additive and multiplicative model, and understand when to modify each model parameter. Later, you'll see how to optimize more complicated models with hyperparameter tuning and by adding additional regressors to the model. Finally, you'll learn how to run diagnostics to evaluate the performance of your models in production. By the end of this book, you'll be able to take a raw time series dataset and build advanced and accurate forecasting models with concise, understandable, and repeatable code.
Table of Contents (20 chapters)
1
Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
5
Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
14
Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation

Creating a Prophet performance metrics DataFrame

Now that you’ve learned what the different options are for performance metrics in Prophet, let’s start coding and see how to access them. We’ll use the same online retail sales data we used in Chapter 12, Performing Cross-Validation. Along with our usual imports, we are going to add the performance_metrics function from Prophet’s diagnostics package and the plot_cross_validation_metric function from the plot package:

import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from prophet import Prophet
from prophet.plot import add_changepoints_to_plot
from prophet.diagnostics import cross_validation
from prophet.diagnostics import performance_metrics
from prophet.plot import plot_cross_validation_metric

Next, let’s load the data, create our forecast, and plot the results:

df = pd.read_csv('online_retail.csv')
df.columns = ['ds', 'y']
model = Prophet(yearly_seasonality...