Book Image

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

By : Greg Rafferty
5 (1)
Book Image

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

5 (1)
By: Greg Rafferty

Overview of this book

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet will help you to implement Prophet's cutting-edge forecasting techniques to model future data with high accuracy using only a few lines of code. This second edition has been fully revised with every update to the Prophet package since the first edition was published two years ago. An entirely new chapter is also included, diving into the mathematical equations behind Prophet's models. Additionally, the book contains new sections on forecasting during shocks such as COVID, creating custom trend modes from scratch, and a discussion of recent developments in the open-source forecasting community. You'll cover advanced features such as visualizing forecasts, adding holidays and trend changepoints, and handling outliers. You'll use the Fourier series to model seasonality, learn how to choose between an additive and multiplicative model, and understand when to modify each model parameter. Later, you'll see how to optimize more complicated models with hyperparameter tuning and by adding additional regressors to the model. Finally, you'll learn how to run diagnostics to evaluate the performance of your models in production. By the end of this book, you'll be able to take a raw time series dataset and build advanced and accurate forecasting models with concise, understandable, and repeatable code.
Table of Contents (20 chapters)
1
Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
5
Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
14
Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation

Interpreting the regressor coefficients

Now let’s look at how to inspect the effects of these additional regressors. Prophet includes a package called utilities, which has a function that will come in handy here, called regressor_coefficients. Let’s import it now:

from prophet.utilities import regressor_coefficients

Using it is straightforward. Just pass the model as an argument and it will output a DataFrame with some helpful information about the extra regressors included in the model:

regressor_coefficients(model)

Let’s take a look at this DataFrame:

Figure 9.6 – The regressor coefficients DataFrame

Figure 9.6 – The regressor coefficients DataFrame

It features a row for each extra regressor in your model. In this case, we have one for temperature and three more for the weather conditions we included. The regressor_mode column naturally will have strings of either additive or multiplicative, depending upon the effect of each specific regressor on 'y&apos...