Book Image

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

By : Greg Rafferty
5 (1)
Book Image

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

5 (1)
By: Greg Rafferty

Overview of this book

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet will help you to implement Prophet's cutting-edge forecasting techniques to model future data with high accuracy using only a few lines of code. This second edition has been fully revised with every update to the Prophet package since the first edition was published two years ago. An entirely new chapter is also included, diving into the mathematical equations behind Prophet's models. Additionally, the book contains new sections on forecasting during shocks such as COVID, creating custom trend modes from scratch, and a discussion of recent developments in the open-source forecasting community. You'll cover advanced features such as visualizing forecasts, adding holidays and trend changepoints, and handling outliers. You'll use the Fourier series to model seasonality, learn how to choose between an additive and multiplicative model, and understand when to modify each model parameter. Later, you'll see how to optimize more complicated models with hyperparameter tuning and by adding additional regressors to the model. Finally, you'll learn how to run diagnostics to evaluate the performance of your models in production. By the end of this book, you'll be able to take a raw time series dataset and build advanced and accurate forecasting models with concise, understandable, and repeatable code.
Table of Contents (20 chapters)
1
Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
5
Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
14
Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation

Building a simple model in Prophet

The longest record of direct measurements of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was started in March 1958 by Charles David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Keeling was based in La Jolla, California, but received permission from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to use its facility located 2 miles above sea level on the northern slope of Mauna Loa, a volcano on the island of Hawaii, to collect CO2 samples. At that elevation, Keeling’s measurements would be unaffected by local releases of CO2, such as from nearby factories.

In 1961, Keeling published the data he had collected thus far, establishing that there was strong seasonal variation in CO2 levels and that they were rising steadily, a trend that later became known as the Keeling Curve. By May 1974, the NOAA had begun their own parallel measurements and have continued since then. The Keeling Curve graph is as follows:

Figure 2.2 – The Keeling Curve, showing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
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