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Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

By : Greg Rafferty
4.9 (9)
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Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

4.9 (9)
By: Greg Rafferty

Overview of this book

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet will help you to implement Prophet's cutting-edge forecasting techniques to model future data with high accuracy using only a few lines of code. This second edition has been fully revised with every update to the Prophet package since the first edition was published two years ago. An entirely new chapter is also included, diving into the mathematical equations behind Prophet's models. Additionally, the book contains new sections on forecasting during shocks such as COVID, creating custom trend modes from scratch, and a discussion of recent developments in the open-source forecasting community. You'll cover advanced features such as visualizing forecasts, adding holidays and trend changepoints, and handling outliers. You'll use the Fourier series to model seasonality, learn how to choose between an additive and multiplicative model, and understand when to modify each model parameter. Later, you'll see how to optimize more complicated models with hyperparameter tuning and by adding additional regressors to the model. Finally, you'll learn how to run diagnostics to evaluate the performance of your models in production. By the end of this book, you'll be able to take a raw time series dataset and build advanced and accurate forecasting models with concise, understandable, and repeatable code.
Table of Contents (20 chapters)
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1
Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
5
Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
14
Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation

Analyst-in-the-loop forecasting

When developing Prophet, Facebook took great care to ensure that the default settings for all parameters would give great results for a wide variety of business cases. However, there are always edge cases, challenging datasets, or simply a forecast that doesn’t quite match expectations. In these situations where the forecast is not satisfactory, the analyst is not stuck with fully automated results. Any analyst, even a beginner forecaster, can improve the forecast by tweaking a variety of easily interpretable parameters. Facebook dubs this process analyst-in-the-loop forecasting (see Figure 3.1).

Figure 3.1 – Analyst-in-the-loop forecasting

Figure 3.1 – Analyst-in-the-loop forecasting

Analyst-in-the-loop forecasting is an iterative process. The analyst starts by using Prophet to build a model using the default parameters. Prophet has been optimized for speed, so in (usually) just a few seconds, it can output a very acceptable forecast. Prophet can then...

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Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet
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