Book Image

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

By : Greg Rafferty
5 (1)
Book Image

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

5 (1)
By: Greg Rafferty

Overview of this book

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet will help you to implement Prophet's cutting-edge forecasting techniques to model future data with high accuracy using only a few lines of code. This second edition has been fully revised with every update to the Prophet package since the first edition was published two years ago. An entirely new chapter is also included, diving into the mathematical equations behind Prophet's models. Additionally, the book contains new sections on forecasting during shocks such as COVID, creating custom trend modes from scratch, and a discussion of recent developments in the open-source forecasting community. You'll cover advanced features such as visualizing forecasts, adding holidays and trend changepoints, and handling outliers. You'll use the Fourier series to model seasonality, learn how to choose between an additive and multiplicative model, and understand when to modify each model parameter. Later, you'll see how to optimize more complicated models with hyperparameter tuning and by adding additional regressors to the model. Finally, you'll learn how to run diagnostics to evaluate the performance of your models in production. By the end of this book, you'll be able to take a raw time series dataset and build advanced and accurate forecasting models with concise, understandable, and repeatable code.
Table of Contents (20 chapters)
1
Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
5
Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
14
Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation

Interpreting the forecast DataFrame

Now, let’s take a look at that forecast DataFrame by displaying the first three rows (I’ve transposed it here, in order to better see the column names on the page) and learn how these values were used in the preceding chart:

forecast.head(3).T

After running that command, you should see the following table printed out:

Figure 2.4 – The forecast DataFrame

Figure 2.4 – The forecast DataFrame

The following is a description of each of the columns in the forecast DataFrame:

  • 'ds': The date stamp or timestamp that the values in that row pertain to
  • 'trend': The value of the trend component alone
  • 'yhat_lower': The lower bound of the uncertainty interval around the final prediction
  • 'yhat_upper': The upper bound of the uncertainty interval around the final prediction
  • 'trend_lower': The lower bound of the uncertainty interval around the trend component
  • 'trend_upper...