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Time Series with PyTorch

Time Series with PyTorch

By : Graeme Davidson, Lei Ma
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Time Series with PyTorch

Time Series with PyTorch

By: Graeme Davidson, Lei Ma

Overview of this book

Neural networks are powerful tools for time-series forecasting, but applying them effectively requires both practical experience and a clear understanding of architectures, training strategies, and evaluation methods. This book brings these ideas together in a structured and practical way. Starting with PyTorch fundamentals, you will build neural networks from scratch and progress through recurrent networks, attention mechanisms, and transformers before exploring forecasting architectures such as N-BEATS, N-HiTS, and the Temporal Fusion Transformer. Along the way, you will learn robust hyperparameter tuning, conformal prediction for uncertainty estimation, and reliable evaluation practices. Unlike most forecasting books, this text also explores topics often overlooked or treated separately, including transfer learning across collections of series, synthetic data generation with diffusion models, and self-supervised representation learning. Beyond forecasting, later chapters cover classification, clustering, anomaly detection, and embeddings for large-scale time-series modeling. Throughout, the focus is pragmatic: theory is reinforced through experimentation and implementation so you can apply these methods confidently to real-world time-series problems.
Table of Contents (22 chapters)
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20
Other Books You May Enjoy
21
Index

Statistical profiling

The conditional X-chart we built is partway to a model. By specifying thresholds relative to exogenous variables, we are saying normal observations are context dependent. Obviously stacking conditions has a ceiling; having price, promotions, day-of-week effects, and seasonality all interacting, the number of conditions multiplies and the boundaries between them become arbitrary. At some point you’re no longer writing rules, but approximating a model, badly.

A cleaner solution is to explicitly build a model. Statistical profiling formalizes this: fit a model (your choice) of expected behavior, and treat its residuals as the detection signal. An anomaly is not a value that exceeds some global threshold; it is a value that is unexpectedly large or small given everything the model knows. Formally, at each time step () we compute:

where is a model’s predicted value given available context: seasonality, trend, price, promotional depth. The...

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Time Series with PyTorch
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