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Time Series with PyTorch

Time Series with PyTorch

By : Graeme Davidson, Lei Ma
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Time Series with PyTorch

Time Series with PyTorch

By: Graeme Davidson, Lei Ma

Overview of this book

Neural networks are powerful tools for time-series forecasting, but applying them effectively requires both practical experience and a clear understanding of architectures, training strategies, and evaluation methods. This book brings these ideas together in a structured and practical way. Starting with PyTorch fundamentals, you will build neural networks from scratch and progress through recurrent networks, attention mechanisms, and transformers before exploring forecasting architectures such as N-BEATS, N-HiTS, and the Temporal Fusion Transformer. Along the way, you will learn robust hyperparameter tuning, conformal prediction for uncertainty estimation, and reliable evaluation practices. Unlike most forecasting books, this text also explores topics often overlooked or treated separately, including transfer learning across collections of series, synthetic data generation with diffusion models, and self-supervised representation learning. Beyond forecasting, later chapters cover classification, clustering, anomaly detection, and embeddings for large-scale time-series modeling. Throughout, the focus is pragmatic: theory is reinforced through experimentation and implementation so you can apply these methods confidently to real-world time-series problems.
Table of Contents (22 chapters)
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20
Other Books You May Enjoy
21
Index

Error metrics

Once we have trained a model and made our predictions, within our evaluative design, we will want to compare them to actual data, so that we can get some understanding of how close our models’ predictions are to the actuals. We can measure performance with a number of metrics; we can even create our own. Each metric has its own strengths and weaknesses. It is crucial to select appropriate error measures based on your data characteristics and business requirements.

Remember from the beginning of the chapter that when evaluating forecasts, you need to consider bias and variance. These components are crucial because they lead to different business decisions. For example, an energy company typically sees consistent seasonal patterns in line with minimal trend, while a new company might experience rapid growth and less predictable patterns.

Selecting an appropriate error metric depends on understanding how each metric weights values and what statistical properties...

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Time Series with PyTorch
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