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Time Series with PyTorch
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“I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” — Thomas A. Edison
While neural networks provide forecasting practitioners with intricate tools for modeling, they come with a large number of options and a parameter space that can dwarf simpler models, which translates into neural networks often consuming significant computational resources and time to train. An excellent study by Nixtla investigated modeling time series data (n = 3,003 series) with different approaches, finding that a simple statistical ensemble (a combination of models) can outperform most individual deep learning models. The statistical ensemble was 25,000x faster to train than a slightly more accurate ensemble of deep learning models (−0.36% sMAPE), which the authors stated took 14+ days to train at a cost of approximately $11,000. This contrasts starkly with the statistical ensemble, which took 6 minutes and cost $0.50 (Nixtla Statsforecast...