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Time Series with PyTorch
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“Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one.” ― Voltaire
All our predictions miss the mark to some degree, and that is fine - the old adage about all models being wrong is a cliché, right alongside the correlation and causation one. But it points to an important question, which is how wrong are we? Translating to slightly more formal language (this is a book dealing with machine learning, after all), it is useful to think about forecasting in terms of point and interval forecasting: the former predicts a specific value, while the latter quantifies the error or uncertainty around it.
Under classical time series modeling, the interval aspect is fairly straightforward to handle. ARIMA-class models rely on parametric assumptions, so deriving a confidence interval around point forecasts amounts to manipulating conditional distributions. With more general types of classical time series models (e.g., non...