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Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

By : Greg Rafferty
4.9 (9)
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Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

4.9 (9)
By: Greg Rafferty

Overview of this book

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet will help you to implement Prophet's cutting-edge forecasting techniques to model future data with high accuracy using only a few lines of code. This second edition has been fully revised with every update to the Prophet package since the first edition was published two years ago. An entirely new chapter is also included, diving into the mathematical equations behind Prophet's models. Additionally, the book contains new sections on forecasting during shocks such as COVID, creating custom trend modes from scratch, and a discussion of recent developments in the open-source forecasting community. You'll cover advanced features such as visualizing forecasts, adding holidays and trend changepoints, and handling outliers. You'll use the Fourier series to model seasonality, learn how to choose between an additive and multiplicative model, and understand when to modify each model parameter. Later, you'll see how to optimize more complicated models with hyperparameter tuning and by adding additional regressors to the model. Finally, you'll learn how to run diagnostics to evaluate the performance of your models in production. By the end of this book, you'll be able to take a raw time series dataset and build advanced and accurate forecasting models with concise, understandable, and repeatable code.
Table of Contents (20 chapters)
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1
Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
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5
Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
14
Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation

Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet

The first part of this book will give you an understanding of the historical developments in time-series forecasting techniques that led to the inception of Prophet and will then guide you through the installation of the program. The section continues with a walk-through of a basic Prophet forecasting model and introduces the output that this kind of model produces. Part 1 closes with a description of the math Prophet uses to build its forecasts.

This section comprises the following chapters:

  • Chapter 1, The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting
  • Chapter 2, Getting Started with Prophet
  • Chapter 3, How Prophet Works
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Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet
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