Book Image

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

By : Greg Rafferty
5 (1)
Book Image

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition

5 (1)
By: Greg Rafferty

Overview of this book

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet will help you to implement Prophet's cutting-edge forecasting techniques to model future data with high accuracy using only a few lines of code. This second edition has been fully revised with every update to the Prophet package since the first edition was published two years ago. An entirely new chapter is also included, diving into the mathematical equations behind Prophet's models. Additionally, the book contains new sections on forecasting during shocks such as COVID, creating custom trend modes from scratch, and a discussion of recent developments in the open-source forecasting community. You'll cover advanced features such as visualizing forecasts, adding holidays and trend changepoints, and handling outliers. You'll use the Fourier series to model seasonality, learn how to choose between an additive and multiplicative model, and understand when to modify each model parameter. Later, you'll see how to optimize more complicated models with hyperparameter tuning and by adding additional regressors to the model. Finally, you'll learn how to run diagnostics to evaluate the performance of your models in production. By the end of this book, you'll be able to take a raw time series dataset and build advanced and accurate forecasting models with concise, understandable, and repeatable code.
Table of Contents (20 chapters)
1
Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
5
Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
14
Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation

Index

As this ebook edition doesn't have fixed pagination, the page numbers below are hyperlinked for reference only, based on the printed edition of this book.

A

additive regression model 10

additive seasonality

versus multiplicative seasonality 56-65

Anaconda 18

reference link 19

analyst-in-the-loop forecasting 30, 31

parameters 31

ARIMA 7, 8

automatic changepoint detection 132

Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) 8, 9

Autoregressive Network (AR-Net) 13

B

Bayesian sampling 193

binary columns 153

binary regressors

adding 152-156

Box-Jenkins model 7

C

cap 113

carrying capacity 34

ceiling 113

changepoints 131

automatic changepoint detection 132

custom changepoint locations, specifying 142-149

default changepoint detection 132-136

regularizing 136-141

clipping 173

components plots 26, 27

conda 18-20

conditional seasonalities

adding 74-78

conditional...