Book Image

Bayesian Analysis with Python - Third Edition

By : Osvaldo Martin
Book Image

Bayesian Analysis with Python - Third Edition

By: Osvaldo Martin

Overview of this book

The third edition of Bayesian Analysis with Python serves as an introduction to the main concepts of applied Bayesian modeling using PyMC, a state-of-the-art probabilistic programming library, and other libraries that support and facilitate modeling like ArviZ, for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models; Bambi, for flexible and easy hierarchical linear modeling; PreliZ, for prior elicitation; PyMC-BART, for flexible non-parametric regression; and Kulprit, for variable selection. In this updated edition, a brief and conceptual introduction to probability theory enhances your learning journey by introducing new topics like Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), featuring updated examples. Refined explanations, informed by feedback and experience from previous editions, underscore the book's emphasis on Bayesian statistics. You will explore various models, including hierarchical models, generalized linear models for regression and classification, mixture models, Gaussian processes, and BART, using synthetic and real datasets. By the end of this book, you will possess a functional understanding of probabilistic modeling, enabling you to design and implement Bayesian models for your data science challenges. You'll be well-prepared to delve into more advanced material or specialized statistical modeling if the need arises.
Table of Contents (15 chapters)
Preface
12
Bibliography
13
Other Books You May Enjoy
14
Index

Chapter 2
Programming Probabilistically

Our golems rarely have a physical form, but they too are often made of clay living in silicon as computer code. – Richard McElreath

Now that we have a very basic understanding of probability theory and Bayesian statistics, we are going to learn how to build probabilistic models using computational tools. Specifically, we are going to learn about probabilistic programming with PyMC [Abril-Pla et al.2023]. The basic idea is that we use code to specify statistical models and then PyMC will solve those models for us. We will not need to write Bayes’ theorem in explicit form. This is a good strategy for two reasons. First, many models do not lead to an analytic closed form, and thus we can only solve those models using numerical techniques. Second, modern Bayesian statistics is mainly done by writing code. We will be able to see that probabilistic programming offers an effective way to build and solve complex models and...