Book Image

Bayesian Analysis with Python - Third Edition

By : Osvaldo Martin
Book Image

Bayesian Analysis with Python - Third Edition

By: Osvaldo Martin

Overview of this book

The third edition of Bayesian Analysis with Python serves as an introduction to the main concepts of applied Bayesian modeling using PyMC, a state-of-the-art probabilistic programming library, and other libraries that support and facilitate modeling like ArviZ, for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models; Bambi, for flexible and easy hierarchical linear modeling; PreliZ, for prior elicitation; PyMC-BART, for flexible non-parametric regression; and Kulprit, for variable selection. In this updated edition, a brief and conceptual introduction to probability theory enhances your learning journey by introducing new topics like Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), featuring updated examples. Refined explanations, informed by feedback and experience from previous editions, underscore the book's emphasis on Bayesian statistics. You will explore various models, including hierarchical models, generalized linear models for regression and classification, mixture models, Gaussian processes, and BART, using synthetic and real datasets. By the end of this book, you will possess a functional understanding of probabilistic modeling, enabling you to design and implement Bayesian models for your data science challenges. You'll be well-prepared to delve into more advanced material or specialized statistical modeling if the need arises.
Table of Contents (15 chapters)
Preface
12
Bibliography
13
Other Books You May Enjoy
14
Index

2.9 Summary

Although Bayesian statistics is conceptually simple, fully probabilistic models often lead to analytically intractable expressions. For many years, this was a huge barrier, hindering the wide adoption of Bayesian methods. Fortunately, maths, statistics, physics, and computer science came to the rescue in the form of numerical methods that are capable—at least in principle—of solving any inference problem. The possibility of automating the inference process has led to the development of probabilistic programming languages, allowing a clear separation between model definition and inference. PyMC is a Python library for probabilistic programming with a very simple, intuitive, and easy-to-read syntax that is also very close to the statistical syntax used to describe probabilistic models.

We introduced the PyMC library by revisiting the coin-flip model from Chapter 1, this time without analytically deriving the posterior. PyMC models are defined inside a context manager...