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Table Of Contents
Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet - Second Edition
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An outlier is any data point that lies significantly away from other data points along one or multiple different axes. Outliers may be incorrect data, resulting from a miscalibrated sensor producing invalid data, or even a finger slip on the keyboard during data entry, or they can be accurately recorded data that happens to wildly miss historical trends for various reasons, such as whether a tornado passed over a wind speed sensor.
These uncharacteristic measurements will sway any statistical or machine learning model, so correcting outliers is a challenge throughout data science and statistics. Fortunately, Prophet is generally robust at handling mild outliers. With extreme outliers though, there are two problems Prophet can experience – one problem with seasonality and another with uncertainty intervals.
In this chapter, you’ll see examples of both of these problems and learn how to alleviate their effects on your forecast...