Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Technical requirements

You will need to set up an Anaconda environment, following the instructions in the Preface of the book, to get a working environment with all the packages and datasets required for the code in this book.

The associated code for the chapter can be found at https://github.com/PacktPublishing/Modern-Time-Series-Forecasting-with-Python-/tree/main/notebooks/Chapter10.

You need to run the following notebooks for this chapter:

  • 02-Preprocessing London Smart Meter Dataset.ipynb in Chapter02
  • 01-Setting up Experiment Harness.ipynb in Chapter04
  • From the Chapter06 and Chapter07 folders:
    • 01-Feature Engineering.ipynb
    • 02-Dealing with Non-Stationarity.ipynb
    • 02a-Dealing with Non-Stationarity-Train+Val.ipynb
  • From the Chapter08 folder:
    • 00-Single Step Backtesting Baselines.ipynb
    • 01-Forecasting with ML.ipynb
    • 01a-Forecasting with ML for Test Dataset.ipynb
    • 02-Forecasting with Target Transformation.ipynb
    • 02a-Forecasting with Target Transformation(Test).ipynb
...