Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT)

TFT is a model that is thoughtfully designed from the ground up to make the most efficient use of all the different kinds of information in a global modeling context – static and dynamic variables. TFT also has interpretability at the heart of all design decisions. The result is a high-performing, interpretable, and global DL model.

Reference check

The research paper by Lim et al. on TFT is cited in the References section as 10.

At first glance, the model architecture looks complicated and daunting. But once you peel the onion, it is quite simple and ingenious. We will take this one level of abstraction at a time to ease you into the full model. Along the way, there will be many black boxes I’m going to ask you to take for granted, but don’t worry – we will open every one of them as we dive deeper.

The Architecture of TFT

Let’s establish some notations and a setting before we start. We have a dataset...