Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

How to choose a multi-step forecasting strategy?

Let’s summarize all the different strategies that we learned now in a table:

Figure 17.9 – Multi-step forecasting strategies – a summary

Here, the following applies:

  • S.O: Single output
  • M.O: Multi-output
  • and : Training and inferencing time of a single output model
  • and : Training and inferencing time of a multi-output model (practically, is larger than mostly because multi-output models are typically DL models and their training time is higher than standard ML models)
  • : The horizon
  • , where is the number of blocks in the IBD strategy
  • is some positive real number

The table will help us understand and decide which strategy is better from multiple perspectives:

  • Engineering complexity: Recursive, Joint, RecJoint << IBD << Direct, DirRec << Rectify
  • Training time: Recursive << Joint (typically ) << RecJoint &lt...