Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Holdout strategies

There are three aspects of a holdout strategy, and they can be mixed and matched to create many variations of the strategy. The three aspects are as follows:

  • Sampling strategy – A sampling strategy is how we sample the validation split(s) from training data.
  • Window strategy – A window strategy decides how we sample the window of training split(s) from training data.
  • Calibration strategy – A calibration strategy decides whether a model should be recalibrated or not.

That said, designing a holdout validation strategy for a time series problem includes making decisions on these three aspects.

Sampling strategies are ways to pick one or more origins in the training data. These origins are point(s) in time that determine the starting point of the validation split and the ending point of the training split. The exact length of the validation split is governed by a parameter , which is the horizon chosen for validation. The...