Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Summary

We have come to the end of our journey through the world of time series forecasting. In the last couple of chapters, we addressed a few mechanics of forecasting, such as how to do multi-step forecasting, and how to evaluate forecasts. Different validation strategies for evaluating forecasts and forecasting models were the topics of the current chapter. We started by enlightening you as to why model validation is an important task. Then, we looked at a few different validation strategies, such as the holdout strategies, and navigated the controversial use of cross-validation for time series. We spent some time summarizing and laying down a few guidelines to be used to select a validation strategy. To top it all off, we looked at how these validation strategies are applicable to datasets with multiple time series and talked about how to adapt them to such scenarios.

With that, we have come to the end of the book. Congratulations on making it all the way through, and I hope...