Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Summary

After having built a strong foundation on deep learning models in the last few chapters, we started to look at a new paradigm of global models in the context of deep learning models. We learned how to use PyTorch Forecasting, an open source library for forecasting using deep learning, and used the feature-filled TimeSeriesDataset to start developing our own models.

We started off with a very simple LSTM in the global context and saw how we can add time-varying information, static information, and the scale of individual time series to the features to make models better. We closed by looking at an alternating sampling procedure for mini-batches that helps us present a more balanced view of the problem in each batch. This chapter is by no means an exhaustive list of all such techniques to make the forecasting models better. Instead, this chapter aims to build the right kind of thinking that is necessary to work on your own models and make them work better than before.

And...