Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Bonus – interpretability

Interpretability can be defined as the degree to which a human can understand the cause of a decision. In machine learning and artificial intelligence, that translates to the degree to which someone can understand the how and why of an algorithm and its predictions. There are two ways to look at interpretability – transparency and post hoc interpretation.

Transparency is when the model is inherently simple and can be simulated or thought about using human cognition. A human should be able to fully understand the inputs and the process a model takes to convert these inputs to outputs. This is a very stringent condition that almost none of the model machine learning or deep learning models satisfy.

This is where post hoc interpretation techniques shine. There are a wide variety of techniques that use the inputs and outputs of a model to understand why a model has made the predictions it has.

There are many popular techniques such as permutation...