Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Tabular regression

In Chapter 5, Time Series Forecasting as Regression, we saw how we can convert a time series problem into a standard regression problem by temporal embedding and time delay embedding. In Chapter 6, Feature Engineering for Time Series Forecasting, we have already created the necessary features for the household energy consumption dataset we have been working on, and in Chapter 8, Forecasting Time Series with Machine Learning Models, Chapter 9, Ensembling and Stacking, and Chapter 10, Global Forecasting Models, we used traditional machine learning (ML) models to create a forecast.

Just as we used standard ML models for forecasting, we can also use DL models built for tabular data using the feature-engineered dataset we have created. One of the advantages of using a DL model in this setting, over the ML models, is the flexibility DL offers us. All through Chapters 8, 9, and 10, we only saw how we can create single-step-ahead forecasting using ML models. We have a...