Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

The generalized attention model

Over the course of years, researchers have come up with different ways of calculating attention weights and using attention in DL models. Sneha Choudhari et al. published a survey paper on attention models that proposes a generalized attention model that tries to incorporate all the variations in a single framework. Let’s structure our discussion around this generalized framework.

We can think of an attention model as learning an attention distribution () for a set of keys, K, using a set of queries, q. In the example we discussed in the last section, the query would be —the hidden state from the last timestep during decoding—and the keys would be —all the hidden states generated using the input sequence. In some cases, the generated attention distribution is applied to another set of inputs called values, V. In many cases, K and V are the same, but to maintain the general form of the framework, we consider these separately...