Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Training and predicting for multiple households

We have picked a few models (LassoCV, XGBRFRegressor, and LGBMRegressor) that are doing better in terms of metrics, as well as runtime, to run on all the selected households in our validation dataset. The process is straightforward: loop over all the unique combinations, inner loop over the different models to run, and then train, predict, and evaluate. The code is available in the 01-Forecasting with ML.ipynb notebook in chapter08, under the Running an ML Forecast For All Consumers heading. You can run the code and take a break because this is going to take a little less than an hour. The notebook also calculates the metrics and contains a summary table that will be ready for you when you’re back. Let’s look at the summary now:

Figure 8.19 – Aggregate metrics on all the households in the validation dataset

Here, we can see that even at the aggregated level, the different models we used perform...