Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting (N-HiTS)

Although there has been a good amount of work from DL to tackle time series forecasting, very little focus has been on long-horizon forecasting. Despite recent progress, long-horizon forecasting remains a challenge because of two reasons:

  • The expressiveness required to truly capture the variation
  • The computational complexity

Attention-based methods (Transformers) and N-BEATS-like methods scale quadratically in memory and the computational cost concerning the forecasting horizon.

The authors claim that N-HiTS drastically cuts long-forecasting compute costs while simultaneously showing 25% accuracy improvements compared to existing Transformer-based architectures across a large array of multi-variate forecasting datasets.

Reference check

The research paper by Challu et al. on N-HiTS is cited in the References section as 5.

The Architecture of N-HiTS

N-HiTS can be considered as an...